While consumers' expectations of where prices are going are something that economists have been tracking for a long time, understanding how those expectations are formed provides valuable insight toward controlling inflation. New research by economists Carlo Pizzinelli (IMF), Peter Andre (Briq Institute), Christopher Roth (University of Cologne), and Johannes Wohlfart (University of Copenhagen) shows a surprising divide between what experts think and consumers believe drives inflation and other economic trends. Carlo Pizzinelli is the author of an article in the latest Finance and Development based on the study. In this podcast, Pizzinelli sits down with Journalist Rhoda Metcalfe to discuss how the collective consumer mind influences economic policy. Transcript: https://bit.ly/3RMPYAv
Read the study: https://bit.ly/3RrXmlb
Welcome to the 5th and final episode of Fintech Forward, the IMF podcast that focuses on financial technology. Hosted by IMF economist Tara Iyer, the special 5-part series draws from the expertise of the IMF Monetary and Capital Markets Department (MCM) to better understand the impact of emerging technologies on financial systems and local economies around the world. In this podcast, MCM's May Khamis talks about how the IMF's Financial Stability Assessment Programs, which started in the early 2000s, are adapting to the rapid rise of FinTech.
Sanctions are not new, but they deliver bigger global shocks and are easier to avoid than at any time in history. Nicholas Mulder's latest book, The Economic Weapon, the Rise of Sanctions as a Tool of Modern War, looks at sanctions regimes of the past to better understand the implications of today's sweeping sanctions against Russia. In this podcast, Mulder says we need to think more carefully about crafting macroeconomic policy at a global level to offset the negative effects that the sanctions are having on third countries. Transcript: https://bit.ly/3wBUZnq
Read Nick Mulder's article in Finance and Development at IMF.org/fandd
Welcome to episode 4 of Fintech Forward, the IMF podcast that focuses on financial technology. Hosted by IMF economist Tara Iyer, the special 5-part series draws from the expertise of the IMF Monetary and Capital Markets Department (MCM) to better understand the impact of emerging technologies on financial systems and local economies around the world. In this podcast, MCM's Aditya Narain and Marina Moretti say regulation of financial technology aims to protect consumers and markets, not stifle innovation. Transcript: https://bit.ly/3wkEMCY
Economic growth depends on several factors, but a new study (forthcoming) by Eric Hanushek and Ludger Woessmann shows nothing is more important for development than equitable education. Hanushek is a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University, and in this podcast, he says skill differences account for three-quarters of cross-country variations in long-term growth. Hanushek also says the global skills deficit is immense, with two-thirds or more of the world’s youth never reaching even basic skill levels. Hanushek and Woessmann are coauthors of The Basic Skills Gap published in Finance and Development where they say reaching the goal of global universal basic skills would raise future world GDP by $700 trillion over the remainder of the century.
Read the article at IMF.org/fandd
Mahatma Gandhi once said, "Live simply so that others may simply live.” In this podcast, we hear from an economist who believes there is more to poverty reduction than just money. Sabina Alkire began her long career helping the poor doing volunteer work alongside the likes of Mother Teresa- then studying theology before turning to economics. Today, Alkire heads the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative (OPHI) and is one of the creators of the Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI), which the United Nations uses to identify and help the most vulnerable people in the world. Journalist, Rhoda Metcalfe spoke with Sabina Alkire to discuss her work for our special series on extraordinary Women in Economics. Transcript: https://bit.ly/3bWv56W
Welcome to episode 3 of Fintech Forward, the IMF podcast that focuses on financial technology. Hosted by IMF economist Tara Iyer, this special 5-part series draws from the expertise of the IMF Monetary and Capital Markets Department (MCM) to better understand the impact of emerging technologies on financial systems and local economies around the world. In this podcast, Fabio Natalucci, Head of the Global Financial Stability Report, discusses the growing correlation between crypto and equity markets and what that means for financial stability. Transcript: https://bit.ly/3zJn2lO
Inflation has pushed up prices for almost everything, but rising food prices could mean life or death for people in countries already struggling with conflict, economic downturns, and the effects of climate change. Maximo Torero Cullen is Chief Economist for the UN's Food and Agriculture Organization, which tracks global food security. In this podcast, Torero says wheat and fertilizer supply shortages have driven up prices and increased food import bills for the most vulnerable countries by more than 25 billion dollars, putting 1.7 billion people at risk of going hungry. Transcript: https://bit.ly/3vlHUht
Welcome to episode 2 of Fintech Forward, a new IMF podcast series with a focus on financial technology. Hosted by IMF economist Tara Iyer, Fintech Forward draws from the expertise of the IMF Monetary and Capital Markets Department (MCM) to better understand the impact of emerging technologies on financial systems and local economies around the world. In this podcast, MCM Deputy Director, Dong He, discusses how central bank digital currencies (CBDC) are set to transform the global monetary system.
The energy crises of the early 70s, the 80s, and the early 2000s all had their challenges, but none were so intertwined with other emergencies like a war in Europe, climate change, and a global pandemic. Daniel Yergin won the Pulitzer Prize and many other accolades for his writing on the political economy of global energy. His latest book The New Map: Energy, Climate and the Clash of Nations looks at where today's energy markets are headed and the geopolitics of an energy transition from hydrocarbons to renewable energy. In this podcast, Yergin says renewables use a lot more minerals than people realize and will move us from the world of big oil to a world of big shovels.
Daniel Yergin is Vice Chairman of S&P Global.
Albert Einstein once said, "In the midst of every crisis, lies great opportunity." But while the war in Ukraine has sparked crises on several fronts, the opportunities are not all that obvious at this point. Historians can help connect those lines by looking back at how we emerged from history's darkest hours. Patricia Clavin is Professor of Modern History at Oxford University. In this podcast, journalist Rhoda Metcalfe asks Clavin what the geopolitical fallout from the war might mean for globalization. Transcript: https://bit.ly/3RdufCi
Read Patricia Clavin's article Turbulence and the Lessons of History in the June issue of Finance and Development. IMF.org/FandD
While international financial institutions work with policymakers to help countries navigate their way through the myriad of disruptions in the global economy of late, the private sector plays a critical role in catalyzing investment that will help bring long-term solutions. In this podcast, Alphabet and Google Chief Financial Officer Ruth Porat and IMF First Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath discuss the growing number of challenges facing the global economy and the opportunities where the private sector can help.
The war in Ukraine and the rise of emerging market economies have opened a new chapter in international relations, with important implications for the global economic order. Like an earthquake, the war has an epicenter, located in Russia and Ukraine, but its seismic waves are impacting economies far and wide and revealing a shift in the underlying geopolitical tectonic plates. In this podcast, IMF Chief Economist, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas discusses what fragmentation of the global economy might mean for the dominance of the US dollar in the international monetary and financial system.
Read the article at IMF.org/fandd
Welcome to Fintech Forward, a new IMF podcast series with a focus on financial technology. Fintech has grown exponentially in recent years and prompted a paradigm shift in virtually all areas of finance, with significant implications for financial stability. Fintech Forward, hosted by IMF economist Tara Iyer, will draw from the expertise of the IMF Monetary and Capital Markets Department to better understand the impact of emerging technologies on financial systems and local economies around the world. In this first episode, Tobias Adrian, Director of the IMF's Monetary and Capital Markets Department, says fintech is causing nothing less than a revolution in the global financial system.
When women begin to participate more in the economy, good things happen. There's more growth, less inequality, and greater financial stability. So, why is women's labor force participation still so low in so many countries? Katharine Christopherson is an Assistant General Counsel in the IMF legal Department and coauthor of some new research that looks at the legal impediments to women’s economic activity across the globe. In this podcast, journalist Rhoda Metcalfe and Katharine Christopherson discuss the outdated laws that hold women back and what drives countries to reform them.
Most of the goods we purchase travel across the oceans in steel containers aboard the largest ships ever to sail the seas. But the pandemic and ensuing lockdowns knocked the wind from their sails and disrupted the entire global shipping network, causing supply shortages and soaring shipping costs. IMF economist Yan Carrière-Swallow has studied the macroeconomic impact of shocks to ocean freight, and in this podcast, he says shipping costs are an important driver of inflation around the world. Transcript: https://bit.ly/3GjIdxD
Yan Carrière-Swallow is coauthor along with Pragyan Deb, Davide Furceri, Daniel Jimenez, and Jonathan Ostry, of Shipping Costs and Inflation available at IMF.org.
Economies grow better when they are more equal, and taxation is a powerful tool to help reduce inequalities. But increasingly, the international tax system is doing the opposite of that by allowing corporations and the world's wealthiest people to avoid paying their fair share. The Tax Justice Network estimates the combined global revenue losses from cross-border tax abuse by people with undeclared offshore assets and of multinational companies amount to some $483 billion a year. Alex Cobham is Chief Executive of the Tax Justice Network, and in this podcast, he speaks with journalist Rhoda Metcalfe about his article Taxing for a New Social Contract in Finance and Development. Transcript: https://bit.ly/3sG6rMI
Read the article at IMF.org/fandd
Fragility and conflict have forced hundreds of millions of people to live outside of state control without access to basic services. And with violent conflict on the rise, two-thirds of the world's poorest could soon be living in fragile and conflict affected states. The International Committee of the Red Cross is one of the world's most important providers of humanitarian assistance and works at the front line of most conflicts across the globe. In this podcast, ICRC President, Peter Maurer discusses the importance of including the expertise of economists in their humanitarian work and the significance of the IMF's new strategy to strengthen its support to fragile and conflict affected states.
Becoming an economist in the 1970s- for a woman, was a lonely road. When Clair Brown joined the Department of Economics at UC Berkeley in 1974 alongside people like Nobel laureate George Akerlof, she was the only female faculty member. But thanks to Brown's prodding, the department hired more women and Berkeley has since become well known for its female economists. Brown has always seen the power of diversity in her work. In 2013 she helped create a new graduate program called Development Engineering that teams engineers with economists to develop technologies that benefit developing regions. Today, she's advocating for a new, more sustainable approach to economic thinking in her book, Buddhist Economics. Journalist, Rhoda Metcalfe spoke with Clair Brown for our special series on extraordinary Women in Economics. Transcript: https://bit.ly/388DzG3
La reprise économique en Afrique subsaharienne a surpris à la hausse au second semestre 2021, mais ces progrès ont été compromis cette année par l'invasion russe de l'Ukraine. La guerre a déclenché un choc économique mondial qui frappe la région à un moment où la capacité de réaction des pays est minime, voire inexistante. Papa N'Diaye dirige l'équipe qui produit les Perspectives économiques régionales pour l'Afrique subsaharienne. Dans ce podcast, il affirme que la croissance a de nouveau ralenti et ne suffira pas à rattraper le terrain perdu.
The economic recovery in sub-Saharan Africa surprised on the upside in the second half of 2021, but that progress has been jeopardized this year by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The war has triggered a global economic shock that is hitting the region at a time when countries’ ability to respond is minimal to nonexistent. Papa N’Diaye leads the team that produces the Regional Economic Outlook for sub-Saharan Africa. In this podcast, he says growth has slowed once again and will not be enough to make up for lost ground.
Read the report at IMF.org
The war in Ukraine has sparked one of the biggest refugee crises of modern times. So, can Europe afford to accommodate the millions of people coming across its borders? Giovanni Peri says while a crisis of this scale will imply significant upfront costs, the European Union is doing right by investing in the human capital of refugees. Peri heads the Global Migration Center at UC Davis, and in this podcast, he says Ukrainian migrants are an opportunity for many European countries that are experiencing aging populations and labor shortages. Transcript: https://bit.ly/3jY7cMn
While financial stability risks have risen on several fronts since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, the latest Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR) says no global systemic event affecting financial institutions or markets has materialized so far. Fabio Natalucci heads the GFSR as well as IMF Global Financial Markets Monitoring. In this podcast, he says stronger banking systems, higher capital and higher liquidity have helped to absorb the shock, but an intensification of the war could further test the resilience of the global financial system. Transcript: https://bit.ly/36qyl7D
Read the full report at IMF.org/GFSR
Read the blog at blogs.imf.org
Just as many countries were beginning to feel the grip of the pandemic start to ease, another global calamity is threatening the recovery. In her customary curtain-raiser speech to the IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said the war in Ukraine has disrupted millions of lives and many aspects of the global economy.
Go to IMF.org to follow the Spring Meetings and find all the IMF flagship reports, including the World Economic Outlook, the Global Financial Stability Report, and the Fiscal Monitor.
Most people and virtually all businesses now use electronic money for their transactions, yet central banks are still dealing with what's known among economists as the paper currency problem, which limits central banks' ability to use deep negative rates to fight recessions. In this second episode of a two-part series on inflation, economists Miles Kimball and Ruchir Agarwal discuss how fully committing to an electronic money standard would allow central banks to break the zero lower bound associated with paper currency and help them to fight both inflation and recessions more effectively, including by lowering the inflation target. Transcript: https://bit.ly/3vncUwW
Miles Kimball is a professor at the University of Colorado, Boulder, and Ruchir Agarwal is a senior economist in the IMF Research Department.
This podcast series is based on their inflation trilogy published in Finance and Development. Read the articles at IMF.org/fandd