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Now displaying: Category: Regional Economic Outlook
Apr 28, 2022

La reprise économique en Afrique subsaharienne a surpris à la hausse au second semestre 2021, mais ces progrès ont été compromis cette année par l'invasion russe de l'Ukraine. La guerre a déclenché un choc économique mondial qui frappe la région à un moment où la capacité de réaction des pays est minime, voire inexistante. Papa N'Diaye dirige l'équipe qui produit les Perspectives économiques régionales pour l'Afrique subsaharienne. Dans ce podcast, il affirme que la croissance a de nouveau ralenti et ne suffira pas à rattraper le terrain perdu.

Apr 28, 2022

The economic recovery in sub-Saharan Africa surprised on the upside in the second half of 2021, but that progress has been jeopardized this year by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The war has triggered a global economic shock that is hitting the region at a time when countries’ ability to respond is minimal to nonexistent. Papa N’Diaye leads the team that produces the Regional Economic Outlook for sub-Saharan Africa. In this podcast, he says growth has slowed once again and will not be enough to make up for lost ground.

Transcript: https://bit.ly/3OIo6N8

Read the report at IMF.org

Oct 22, 2021

La planète reste aux prises avec une pandémie qui dure et avec une accélération des changements climatiques. Les solutions à ces défis internationaux doivent mobiliser tous les pays et toutes les régions, y compris l’Afrique subsaharienne, qui possède la population la moins vaccinée au monde et des écosystèmes critiques. La croissance de la région devrait s’établir à 3,7 % en 2021, puis à 3,8 % en 2022. Cela fait suite à la forte contraction de 2020, mais représente toujours la reprise la plus lente par rapport aux autres régions. Papa N'Diaye dirige l'équipe qui produit les perspectives économiques régionales pour l'Afrique subsaharienne. Dans ce podcast, il dit que l'accès aux vaccins est toujours la priorité pour la région.

Oct 22, 2021

The world remains in the grip of the pandemic and a seemingly accelerating pace of climate change. Solutions to these global problems must involve all countries and regions, especially sub-Saharan Africa, with the world’s least vaccinated population and critical ecosystems. Sub-Saharan Africa’s economy is set to expand by 3.7 percent in 2021 and 3.8 percent in 2022. This follows the sharp contraction in 2020, but still represents the slowest recovery relative to other regions. Papa N’Diaye leads the team that produces the Regional Economic Outlook for sub-Saharan Africa. In this podcast, he says access to vaccines is still the priority for the region.

Transcript: https://bit.ly/3ppx8EP

Apr 15, 2021

While there are signs of a recovery in advanced economies, sub-Saharan Africa is still in the throes of an unprecedented health and economic crisis. The second wave of COVID-19 infections was worse than the first and countries are bracing for more, while access to vaccines is scant at best. Most African countries will be struggling to vaccinate essential frontline workers this year, let alone the broader population. The latest Regional Economic Outlook for sub-Saharan Africa lays out the challenges that the region is facing and comes up with some policy recommendations to deal with critical issues like debt management and the financing of vaccine procurement. Papa N’Diaye leads the team that produces the biannual report. In this podcast, he says sub-Saharan Africa will be the world’s slowest growing region in 2021.

Read the report at IMF.org

Apr 15, 2021

S'il existe des signes de reprise dans les économies avancées, l'Afrique subsaharienne est toujours en proie à une crise sanitaire et économique sans précédent. La deuxième vague d'infections au COVID-19 était pire que la première et les pays se préparent à plus, alors que l'accès aux vaccins est au mieux limité. La plupart des pays africains auront du mal à vacciner les travailleurs de première ligne essentiels cette année, sans parler de la population en général. Les dernières Perspectives économiques régionales de l'Afrique subsaharienne présentent les défis auxquels la région est confrontée et formule des recommandations politiques pour faire face à des problèmes critiques tels que la gestion de la dette et le financement de l'achat de vaccins. Papa N’Diaye dirige l’équipe qui produit le rapport semestriel. Dans ce podcast, il dit que l’Afrique subsaharienne sera la région du monde qui affiche la plus faible croissance en 2021.

Le papier intégral peut être consulté sur imf.org.

Nov 2, 2020

 

بلدان الشرق الأوسط وشمال إفريقيا استجابت لجائحة كوفيد-19 باتخاذ إجراءات سريعة وصارمة للتخفيف من انتشار الجائحة وحدة تأثيرها ولكنها لا تزال تواجه بيئة قاسية يشوبها عدم اليقين. فتشير آخر التوقعات لآفاق الاقتصاد في المنطقة إلى أن البلدان المصدرة للنفط تضررت على وجه الخصوص بدرجة بالغة من "صدمة مزدوجة" تمثلت في الأثر الاقتصادي لحالات الإغلاق العام وما ترتب عليها من هبوط حاد في الطلب على النفط وفي أسعاره. جهاز أزعور يلقي الضوء على توقعات صندوق النقد الدولي للآفاق الاقتصادية في المنطقة. ويقول أزعور في هذه الحلقة من البث الصوتي إن احتواء الأزمة الصحية لا يزال هو الأولوية، إلا أن الحكومات يجب أن تبدأ كذلك في إرساء ركائز التعافي الاقتصادي الذي سيسمح للبلدان بالخروج من الأزمة أقوى من ذي قبل.

جهاد أزعور، مدير إدارة الشرق الأوسط وآسيا الوسطى

Nov 2, 2020

The Middle East and North Africa responded to the COVID-19 pandemic with swift and stringent measures to mitigate its spread and impact but continue to face an uncertain and difficult environment. The latest outlook for the region shows oil exporters, in particular, were hard hit by a “double-whammy” of the economic impact of lockdowns and a sharp decline in oil demand and prices. Jihad Azour heads the IMF's outlook for the region. In this podcast, he says while containing the health crisis is still the priority, governments must also start laying the groundwork for an economic recovery that will allow countries to emerge stronger.

Jihad Azour is Director of the IMF Middle East and Central Asia Department.

Oct 22, 2020

La pandémie mondiale a exercé une pression intense sur les économies de toute l'Afrique subsaharienne. De nombreux gouvernements luttent pour maintenir la stabilité macroéconomique tout en répondant aux besoins fondamentaux de leurs populations. Papa N'Diaye dirige les perspectives économiques du FMI pour la région. Dans ce podcast, il dit que l'économie de l'Afrique subsaharienne connaîtra sa pire contraction jamais enregistrée cette année, ramenant le PIB par habitant aux niveaux de 2013.

Papa N’Diaye est chef de la division des études régionales au département Afrique du FMI.

Oct 22, 2020

The global pandemic has put intense pressure on economies across sub-Saharan Africa. Many governments are struggling to maintain macroeconomic stability while also meeting the basic needs of their populations. Papa N'Diaye heads the IMF's economic outlook for the region. In this podcast, he says sub-Saharan Africa's economy will see its worst contraction on record this year, bringing real per capita incomes back to 2013 levels.

Papa N’Diaye heads the Regional Studies Division in the IMF’s African Department.

Jul 10, 2020

The IMF's latest Economic Outlook for sub-Saharan Africa is considerably worse than its April outlook and is subject to massive uncertainty. Economic activity this year is now projected to contract by some 3.2 percent, reflecting a weaker global economy and measures to contain the spread of the virus. In this podcast, Financial Times Africa Editor, David Pilling, and Kristalina Georgieva discuss the profound economic consequences of the pandemic for the continent and how the Fund is supporting countries through the crisis. The interview was produced by the Financial Times and can be found at FT.com/David-Pilling

Jun 25, 2020

While connectivity in sub-Saharan Africa lags behind other regions, digitalization is advancing fast and being embraced by those who do have access. Some countries are now global leaders in mobile money transactions—with a share of GDP average close to 25 percent, compared to just 5 percent in the rest of the world. In a region where infrastructure is often lacking, digital technologies offer ways to break down or leap over barriers. IMF economists Preya Sharma and Martha Tesfaye Woldemichael are co-authors of the latest analytical chapter for the Economic Outlook for sub-Saharan Africa, which studies the impact of digitalization. In this podcast, Sharma and Woldemichael say expanding internet access in sub-Saharan Africa by an extra 10 percent of the population could increase real per capita GDP growth by 1 to 4 percentage points.

TRANSCRIPT

Jun 19, 2020

L'Afrique subsaharienne est en première ligne du changement climatique, avec des conditions météorologiques extrêmes qui font des ravages sur les infrastructures et la production agricole. Mais la crise sanitaire introduit un autre niveau de risque pour la chaîne alimentaire. Dans ce podcast, les économistes du FMI Genet Zinabou et Eric Pondi Endengle disent que l'augmentation de la fréquence et de l'intensité des catastrophes naturelles pèse sur la région, qui dépend fortement de l'agriculture pluviale. Les dernières Perspectives économiques examinent comment la région peut mieux gérer les types de chocs qui menacent son approvisionnement alimentaire.

Jun 3, 2020

Sub-Saharan Africa is on the front lines of climate change with extreme weather wreaking havoc on infrastructure and agricultural production. COVID-19 introduces yet another level of risk to the food chain. In this podcast, IMF economists Pritha Mitra and Seung Mo Choi say the increase in frequency and intensity of natural disasters is weighing down on the region, which relies heavily on rainfed agriculture. The latest Economic Outlook for sub-Saharan Africa looks at how the region can better manage the types of shocks that threaten its food supply.

Transcript

May 12, 2020

L'Afrique subsaharienne fait face à une crise sanitaire et économique sans précédent qui menace d'inverser une grande partie des progrès de développement qu'elle a réalisés ces dernières années. Les dernières perspectives économiques régionales montrent une contraction de 1,6% cette année, le pire résultat jamais enregistré. Papa N'Diaye est chef de la recherche au Département Afrique du FMI qui publie les perspectives. Dans ce podcast, N'Diaye dit que d'ici la fin de 2020, la région fera face à des pertes de revenus d'environ 200 milliards de dollars par rapport à ce qu'elle attendait il y a 6 mois.

May 12, 2020

Sub-Saharan Africa is facing an unprecedented health and economic crisis that threatens to reverse much of the development progress it's made in recent years. The latest Regional Economic Outlook shows the economy will contract by 1.6 percent this year; the worst reading on record. Papa N'Diaye is Head of Research in the IMF’s African Department that publishes the outlook. In this podcast, N'Diaye says by the end of 2020, the region will face income losses of about $200 billion relative to what they were expecting 6 months ago.

May 4, 2020

No region has been spared the economic devastation of the coronavirus pandemic. And with the high level of oil-dependency and informality of many countries in the Middle East and Central Asia, Jihad Azour says the economic impact of COVID-19 has been dramatic. Azour heads the IMF's Middle East and Central Asia Department, which has just published the region's economic outlook that shows formidable challenges in the face of the pandemic.

You can read Azour's’s blog and others about the global impact of the pandemic at Blogs.imf.org

TRANSCRIPT

Nov 1, 2019

The dramatic drop in commodity prices in 2014 has had lingering effects in sub-Saharan Africa. One such effect is a growing backlog of payments by governments to service providers, known as arrears. But despite the prevalence of arrears in the region, their causes and consequences are not well understood. The latest Regional Economic Outlook for sub-Saharan Africa looks at the economic and social impact of increasing arrears in recent years. In this podcast, IMF economists Samuel Delepierre and David Stenzel say domestic arrears can undermine private sector activity and citizens’ trust in the government.

Oct 18, 2019

Competition is considered to be an essential driving force of market economies. It’s said to ensure a more efficient allocation of resources and can boost innovation and productivity. But what happens when there isn’t enough competition? The latest Regional Economic Outlook for sub-Saharan Africa looks at how the lack of competition in the region is hurting the poor and undermining economic growth. In this podcast, IMF economists Reda Cherif and Jesus Gonzalez-Garcia say more competition could lower prices and increase welfare.

Photo: Competition makes the economy work for people. (iStock by Getty images/ Stefan_Ganev)

May 8, 2019

In 2018, African Union members established the African Continental Free Trade Area in an effort to boost regional trade. They agreed to eliminate tariffs on most goods, liberalize the trade of services and address obstacles to trade between African countries. The African free trade agreement has since been ratified by 22 countries and is likely to take effect later this year. The IMF’s latest Regional Economic Outlook for sub-Saharan Africa studies the potential impact of the agreement that will establish a market of 1.2 billion people with a combined GDP of US$2.5 trillion dollars. In this podcast, economists Reda Cherif and Geremia Palomba say this could be an economic game changer for the continent.

Geremia Palomba is a Deputy Division Chief and Reda Cherif is a Senior Economist in IMF’s African Department.

Apr 12, 2019

A third of countries in sub-Saharan Africa are currently involved in conflict or experiencing post-conflict tension, forcing an estimated 18 million people away from their homes and livelihoods. The IMF’s latest Regional Economic Outlook for sub-Saharan Africa provides an in-depth analysis of conflict trends and the socio-economic challenges faced by countries in the region. Economists, Siddharth Kothari and Mahvash Saeed Qureshi spearheaded the study. In this podcast, they say conflicts strain public finances and shift scarce resources away from social and developmental spending, accentuating their debilitating consequences.

Mahvash Saeed Qureshi is a Deputy Division Chief and Siddharth Kothari is an economist in the Regional Studies Division of the IMF’s African department.

Nov 27, 2018

In the wake of the global financial crisis and with low interest rates lingering in most advanced economies, investors have increasingly been looking at Africa for investment opportunities. The IMF’s latest Regional Economic Outlook for sub-Saharan Africa examines what this spectacular increase in capital flows means for the region. In this podcast, economist Mahvash Saeed Qureshi says the recent rise in investment capital offers a lot of opportunities but also carries risks. Qureshi led the research team that wrote the report. 

Mahvash Saeed Qureshi is a Deputy Division Chief in the IMF’s African department.

Photo: Global factors such as U.S. interest rates and commodity prices have a direct impact on capital flows to sub-Saharan Africa. (iStock by Getty Images/fotopoly)

Oct 11, 2018

Oil prices have bounced back somewhat but the IMF's latest Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa shows why energy exporters shouldn’t get too comfortable. "The level of oil prices that we see currently don’t imply growth rates in the future that are high enough, and that are anywhere near what we had seen before the oil slump.” Papa N’Diaye is head of research in the IMF’s African Department, and in this podcast, he says while the macroeconomic outlook for sub-Saharan Africa continues to strengthen­–thanks to ongoing reforms and stronger global growth, growth rates still fall short of what the region really needs. N’Diaye oversaw the writing of this latest regional economic outlook.

Photo: Now What? Growth rates in sub-Saharan Africa are too low to create enough jobs for its growing labor force. (iStock by Getty Images/peopleimages).

Oct 11, 2018

Le dernier rapport du FMI sur les perspectives économiques régionales indique que la croissance s’accélère, grâce en partie, à la hausse du cours des produits de base. »En fin, la raison pour laquelle la croissance augmente c’est par ce que les pays exportateurs de pétrole se remettent peu à peu de ce choc avec le bénéfice des prix plus élevés du pétrole.» Papa N’Diaye, dirige la division des études régionales au département Afrique du FMI, et il dit que tandis que la perspective macroéconomique pour l'Afrique subsaharienne continue à se renforcer–merci aux réformes en cours et la croissance mondiale plus forte, les taux de croissance ne répondent toujours pas au besoin réel de la région. N’Diaye a supervisé la rédaction de cette nouvelle perspective économique régionale.

Photo: Et maintenant? La croissance en Afrique subsaharienne reste trop faible pour créer suffisamment d’emplois pour absorber l’augmentation rapide de sa population active. (iStock by Getty Images/peopleimages)

Jun 21, 2018

Le dernier rapport du FMI sur les perspectives économiques régionales de l’Afrique subsaharienne indique qu’avec l’adoption des bonnes politiques, la région pourrait globalement accroître ses recettes publiques de jusqu’à 5 % du PIB. Alex Segura est chef de mission pour le Gabon et il a dirigé l’équipe qui a écrit le chapitre sur la mobilisation des recettes fiscales en Afrique subsaharienne. Dans ce podcast, Segura explique que les gens sont plus susceptibles de se conformer à leurs obligations s’ils sont convaincus que le fisc est équitable.

Alex Segura est conseiller au département Afrique du FMI.

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