Global prospects are looking better one year into the pandemic, albeit highly uncertain. The latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) places growth at 6% for 2021, compared to 2020's unprecedented contraction of -3.3%. But recovery is by and large vaccine-dependent and the lack of access to vaccines is making recovery hard to imagine for some countries, while others are well on their way. Malhar Nabar is Division Chief in the IMF Research Department and heads the WEO. In this podcast, he says these divergent recoveries are a big concern. Transcript
Read the WEO and the blog at IMF.org
While emerging markets suffered huge portfolio outflows at the beginning of the pandemic, the latest Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR) shows capital flows have returned and the outlook continues to improve, partly because of low interest rates in countries such as the United States. The new report takes a close look at the possibility of rising interest rates and what that would mean for emerging market economies trying to recover from the pandemic. Fabio Natalucci is Deputy Director of the Monetary and Capital Markets Department and heads the GFSR. In this podcast, he says a lagging recovery in emerging markets is a risk to global financial stability. Transcript
Read the report: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/GFSR
Read the blog: https://blogs.imf.org/
More than a year into the COVID-19 crisis, signs of a recovery for some countries are slowly beginning to emerge. But in her customary curtain-raiser speech ahead of next week's virtual IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said high uncertainty is one of the greatest dangers facing the global economy.
Go to IMF.org to follow the Spring Meetings and find all the IMF flagship reports, including the World Economic Outlook, the Global Financial Stability Report, and the Fiscal Monitor.
2020 was a record-breaking year for housing markets in many countries- including the US, but for the commercial real estate sector, it was a completely different story. Lockdown and containment measures severely affected economic activity, pushing down commercial property transactions and prices in cities around the world. A new analytical chapter in the IMF Global Financial Stability Report looks at how continued downward pressure on prices could threaten financial stability and hamper the recovery. In this podcast, lead author Andrea Deghi and team lead Mahvash Qureshi say vacancy rates of office space in the US almost doubled in 2020 due to people having to work from home, a trend likely to continue well beyond the pandemic.
Read the analytical chapter: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/GFSR/Issues/2021/04/06/global-financial-stability-report-april-2021
Read the blog: https://blogs.imf.org/
Public policy plays an important role in the recovery from the pandemic, but private sector innovation and agility can make a big difference on many counts. In this episode, Alphabet and Google CFO Ruth Porat talks with IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva and David Miliband, Chief Executive Officer of the International Rescue Committee, on Google's Zeitgeist podcast, an exclusive series that brings together extraordinary leaders to focus on critical issues for the world. Transcript
Earlier this month, AFRODAD's Jason Braganza was invited to participate in the IMF and European Commission's annual African Fiscal Forum, where Finance Ministers, heads of international agencies, and development partners discussed ways to support African economies through the pandemic. In this podcast, Braganza says countries need more fiscal space to boost social protection systems, provide stimulus for businesses, and create resources for vaccination procurement and rollout programs.
Corporate market power has been on the rise in recent decades, but a new IMF study shows the pandemic has strengthened price markups for dominant firms and increased the concentration of revenues among the biggest players in sectors such as technology and pharma. The Brookings Institution and Bruegel hosted a conversation with Kristalina Georgieva, IMF Managing Director, U.S. Senator Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.), and Margrethe Vestager, Executive Vice President of the European Commission, to talk about the research and discuss policy responses. In this podcast, lead author Romain Duval says a further rise in corporate market power would stifle innovation, hold back wage growth, and be a drag on the economic recovery. Romain Duval is Assistant Director in the IMF Research Department.
Read the Blog at https://blogs.imf.org/
Watch the webcast at https://www.brookings.edu
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva and US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen celebrate International Women's day with a conversation about the advancement of women in the field of economics. Transcript
Watch the webcast HERE
There are talented people everywhere, with ideas that could make the world a better place to live in. But what does it take for a promising young innovator to reach their full potential? In this podcast, IMF economist Ruchir Agarwal says global scientific output could be more than 40 percent higher if talented youth around the world had equal opportunities to nurture their abilities. Look for Agarwal and coauthors Ina Ganguli and Patrick Gaule's article Embracing the Gift of Global Talent in the March 2021 issue of Finance and Development Magazine. Transcript
Economists have long studied economic migration between rich and poor countries, but India's large population and significant divergence in per capita incomes between its rich and poor states make it an interesting case study on the implications of economic migration within a fast-growing emerging economy. In this podcast, economists Prakash Loungani and Sriram Balasubramanian discuss how consumption levels in India's rural and urban areas may be driving the migration trends within its borders. Transcript
Read the working paper HERE
The pandemic has proven in no uncertain terms that people and institutions need to adapt to change. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva was invited by the Albright Institute of Global Affairs at Wellesley College to discuss how the Fund is adapting to the current needs of the global economy and the extent to which the institution has had to rethink its strategies since it was created in 1944 to support economies of the post-war world. The conversation was moderated by Prof. Joseph Joyce, Professor of Economics, Wellesley College. Transcript
Watch the Wellesley College webcast HERE
You may also be interested in Kristalina Georgieva's talk with Badr Jafar, Founding Patron of the Centre for Strategic Philanthropy. Watch HERE
Global disparities between women and men have narrowed over the twentieth century but despite the strong evidence of the benefits of closing the gender gap, progress has been slow in many parts of the world. Dr Alice Evans has studied women movements across the globe and written extensively on the topic. She was invited by the IMF Africa Department to talk about how feminist activism helps women overcome barriers to greater economic autonomy and is key to achieving gender equality. In this podcast, Evans says feminist activism thrives in societies with female mobility, economic development, and labor-intensive growth.
Find her articles and podcast at DrAliceEvans.com.
With the great strides in financial technology in recent years, the lower data processing costs and fees associated with investing in the stock market should have led to broader increases of household wealth. But in this podcast, economist Roxana Mihet says while fintech has reduced barriers to access and held out the promise of gains for all, it may have worsened capital income inequality. Mihet is Assistant Professor of Finance at HEC Lausanne, and her recent study suggests the most likely beneficiaries of financial innovation are those who have access to the valuable data that inform good investments. Mihet was recipient of the ECB's Young Economists Award in 2020 for her work on Financial Innovation and the Inequality Gap. She was invited by the IMF's Strategy, Policy and Review Department to present her research. Transcript
Many things can happen within the global financial system to disrupt financial stability, and the pandemic is testing most of them. Fabio Natalucci heads the IMF's Global Financial Stability Report, which analyses trends in the world economy and looks for potential vulnerabilities. The latest update identifies the uneven distribution of vaccines across the globe as one of those vulnerabilities, especially for frontier market economies. In this podcast, Natalucci says while the vaccine rollout has boosted hopes of a recovery this year, there are still difficult times ahead. Fabio Natalucci is Deputy Director in the Monetary and Capital Markets Department. Transcript
Artificial intelligence and robots are revolutionizing production processes across the globe, but what countries stand to gain most from these new technologies? Economists Andy Berg and Chris Papageorgiou are coauthors of a new study that suggests the so-called AI revolution may widen the gap between rich and poor countries. Transcript